The Future of Restaurants
It Won't Be Full Service
TODAY'S RAMBLINGS
3 Minute Read
I hope you had a great turkey day. We had our feast at One Market, a Killer and very nice restaurant on The Embarcadero in SF. They nailed it, but I’m not sure how long One Market and places like them will be around.
Recently, I read this article, from our fine local paper, the San Francisco Chronicle. I found it disappointing.
Not because I’ve ever been to Daytrip in Oakland or will miss it, but because of the restaurant’s premise and resulting demise. Here is an excerpt from the article.
The restaurant sought to become a leader in the growing conversation around equity in the industry, implementing a 20% service charge that was split evenly among staff regardless of position, paying higher wages, and offering health benefits. The combination landed Daytrip on Bon Appetit’s esteemed list of the 10 best new restaurants in the U.S. in 2022: “In a city overrun with buzzy restaurants, it seems like everyone wants to eat — and work — at this one.
But it looks like full-service restaurants that compensate their employees properly don’t have much of a future. Places like Daytrip . . . and One Market.
“In order to treat our employees financially the way we wanted to, it just didn’t add up,” Stern said.
I know less about running a restaurant than virtually anything, but that - shocker - won’t stop me from commenting on a troubled industry.
Because reading the article about Daytrip’s closure and then experiencing One Market yesterday brought a larger question to mind: What will work for restaurants and staffing them with professionals? Especially if Dear Leader deports even just a fraction of those he’s threatened?
It’s hard to imagine there’s much of a future for quality sit-down dining with full service in many cities. Sure, there will always be special occasion restaurants, but what about more normal places?
Consider:
The cost of quality space
The cost of goods
The cost of labor
Most are aware that commercial landlords have hesitated - often militantly - to adjust their pricing downward in reflection of a post-pandemic world. So rents remain high, and at least here in SF, places sit empty vs. being rented at a discount. The attitude among owners seems to be “I’ll wait - the prices will come back.” So many would-be restauranteurs hit a roadblock just finding a location, and those who do need packed houses to make the rent.
Inflation is right around the Fed’s target of 2%, but that doesn’t mean the costs to restaurants have come down. And that is reflected in menu prices, which have done nothing but go up. How many of us haven’t been fairly stunned recently to see what a plate of pasta and a glass of wine costs at a decent place? This hurts business.
Labor? The problem is clear: Housing, driving, and healthcare costs have exploded. That’s true for everyone, from those who manage restaurants to those who mop their floors and wash their dishes. So paying fair and livable wages becomes more and more expensive for restaurant owners - to the point of being prohibitively so.
All of this begs the question: Might full-service dining simply become too expensive a proposition? For restauranteurs and customers alike?
I say yes, sadly. I predict the trend of fast casual dining will continue, but perhaps with restauranteurs being increasingly creative in how it’s done.
Let’s hope so. Otherwise, we may all be doomed to a future of Sweetgreen, Panera Bread, and Pret a Manger.
Me? I say if I can’t have service, I’d love to see a modern and trick Automat, maybe with beer and wine taps, and great music.
Fun Fact: There is an entertaining documentary on the original Automat chain; I watched it on Amazon Prime and it’s worth a look.
FROM THE UNWASHED MASSES
Thank you for reading this newsletter.
KLUF
In some kind of crazy oversight, this is the first time this band has ever graced these fake airwaves. Here is some Diamond Certified dining music, and something that would set the right tone at my new-era Automat.